TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,541 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec6b…ebd7backed No1c2,367$32 inLost-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c1,842$14 inLost-$14.05120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b0…a994backed No1c1,416$12 inLost-$11.99650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb55e…5df6backed No1c1,248$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10d3…4478backed No1c1,184$15 inLost-$15.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0293…f15bbacked No2c1,051$16 inLost-$16.42742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+21.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf03c…3effbacked No2c1,047$21 inLost-$20.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0035…7f3abacked No24c1,041$249 inLost-$248.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d52…816dbacked No2c959$19 inLost-$19.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x970c…376dbacked No2c773$15 inLost-$15.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d4…7e8ebacked No2c642$13 inLost-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccaa…38a2backed No2c600$11 inLost-$10.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5528…85c5backed No3c545$17 inLost-$17.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3289…791dbacked No3c536$17 inLost-$17.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5807…608dbacked No3c491$17 inLost-$16.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x559f…04a4backed No4c450.53$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No8c200$16 inLost-$16.0339116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes25c50$13 inWon+$37.54323.3%10 W · 33 L+0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.