Earnings · resolved market
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xded00ece4352bc848e310dc5ef71eefa39df1146f8a6bf45ebf9fb9f51bab68d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 11c | 854.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…471abacked No | 12c | 808.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 12c | 788$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 11c | 699.95$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…177fbacked No | 11c | 654.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 8c | 629.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…906bbacked No | 11c | 562.22$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 18c | 556.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…b243backed No | 15c | 550$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 13c | 504.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…22abbacked No | 9c | 499.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…5ba0backed No | 11c | 450$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…3f9ebacked No | 18c | 443.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 11c | 399.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca10…c671backed No | 14c | 351.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…6a8ebacked No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed No | 20c | 287.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 281.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e87…5b81backed No | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 232.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…ea39backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5b…9a3fbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 199.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…10a2backed No | 14c | 199.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 199.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 14c | 189.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 22c | 183.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 181.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 11c | 149.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 11c | 146.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf702…0bbabacked No | 14c | 142.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 22c | 137.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…ec80backed No | 15c | 134.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 126.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 12c | 118.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 12c | 108.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked No | 10c | 101.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…e7f6backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a3…3451backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a3…5249backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…b298backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked No | 11c | 99.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6a…39c1backed No | 23c | 88.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…4fccbacked No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd64…0029backed Yes | 79c | 39.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd976…0aa2backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…517cbacked Yes | 80c | 23.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…a524backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.