China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14c9b606cb879e55c886b877c42b8e78c44f5ff385847d5ed2c45a4346209ad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked Yes | 3c | 2,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5800…ca19backed Yes | 1c | 2,409$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,207$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…d216backed Yes | 11c | 1,327$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,199$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f5…3328backed Yes | 19c | 1,100$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 10c | 989.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe865…0b11backed Yes | 3c | 753.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 738.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 611.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 505.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 480.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…dc40backed No | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 428.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 229.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…5296backed Yes | 6c | 205.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 10c | 197.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 147.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1370…2cfdbacked No | 80c | 140$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89b…41f4backed Yes | 21c | 118.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 73c | 105.43$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe0…323bbacked Yes | 10c | 104.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.