AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3b8a997c149d32719f04cba795296278ccfa429c9635204be17c9272311e0ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 2c | 12,131$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.48 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 10,190$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.54 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 10,074$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,267$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.57 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 4c | 3,826$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.32 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 7c | 3,289$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.82 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…73c8backed Yes | 4c | 3,235$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,934$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…710fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,407$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 2,303$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,483$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,263$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…8f58backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,155$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,018$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…ab2ebacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…c01cbacked Yes | 1c | 989.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +1,572.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 1c | 973.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 1c | 929.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba35…1b73backed Yes | 5c | 818.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 812$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 771.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 770.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57c…0652backed Yes | 3c | 730.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 714.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 683.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 484.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…95cfbacked Yes | 5c | 482.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 5c | 469.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 346.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 7c | 249.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…6f93backed Yes | 5c | 243.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4364…5e5abacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?Yes won
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.