AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1127d5658e976d9bc6f4891d0759db05034ff9a57f62323deb102015e1f0c839
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 14c | 8,040$1,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,912.39 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 72c | 3,461$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.89 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 49c | 3,264$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.92 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 67c | 2,806$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7013backed No | 1c | 2,689$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 61c | 2,477$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.37 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 2,298$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 53c | 1,792$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.8 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ca…3b87backed Yes | 11c | 1,750$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,562.73 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 45c | 1,604$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.23 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed Yes | 63c | 1,593$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,566$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.02 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes | 65c | 1,565$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5510backed Yes | 75c | 1,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.98 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 32c | 1,219$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.45 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 13c | 1,084$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 48c | 1,050$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.44 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 1,012$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,004$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.71 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…c01cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +1,572.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 56c | 920.83$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 15c | 747.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.1 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef47…6be1backed Yes | 5c | 709$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,851.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 27c | 707.15$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf64…ad49backed Yes | 12c | 701.61$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 69c | 676.76$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…a818backed Yes | 68c | 675.2$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 61c | 617$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.68 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 609.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.46 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 563.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.42 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 56c | 560.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.32 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Yes | 59c | 547.14$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 51c | 538.08$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.13 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 5c | 518.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 465.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.36 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed No | 35c | 451.58$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…40fbbacked No | 22c | 444.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…2a4abacked Yes | 71c | 441.02$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 399.99$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.6 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 74c | 399.96$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -7.8wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 393.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes | 8c | 380.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.21 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +587.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 65c | 380$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 64c | 364.55$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.51 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 5c | 340.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.41 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 4c | 337.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +804.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…a55fbacked Yes | 71c | 323.8$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 70c | 321.18$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 61c | 320.13$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.92 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 316.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 27c | 316.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 312.12$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 5cpaid | +476.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 282.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 54c | 275.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed No | 10c | 258.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 28c | 258.16$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…11f4backed Yes | 69c | 246.02$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…261cbacked Yes | 71c | 229.29$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed No | 5c | 224.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 76c | 216.76$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 71c | 216.03$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd311…1c1ebacked Yes | 51c | 214.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 45c | 212.64$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…3336backed No | 28c | 202.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 62c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…b99cbacked Yes | 68c | 190.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 10c | 181.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.43 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…82cabacked No | 35c | 179$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…b4f6backed No | 35c | 174$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 12c | 161.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 35c | 159.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c1…ef0fbacked No | 35c | 159$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3957…e7afbacked No | 35c | 158$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…61a0backed Yes | 65c | 153.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…3133backed No | 35c | 153$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…f26cbacked No | 38c | 132.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe311…a16fbacked No | 22c | 129$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…420cbacked Yes | 47c | 105.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 64c | 104.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc939…6e0fbacked Yes | 65c | 100.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…2548backed Yes | 63c | 99.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +256.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 41c | 99.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…0869backed Yes | 65c | 99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 98.35$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5792…0bb3backed Yes | 51c | 97.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…e5d9backed Yes | 68c | 95.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…5909backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…bd45backed Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…c15bbacked Yes | 65c | 94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec57…859cbacked Yes | 65c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0908…aa36backed Yes | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee5…3ccabacked Yes | 65c | 87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f07…b641backed Yes | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad5…6b66backed Yes | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…5bf8backed Yes | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 73c | 75.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 39c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.