TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$131,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes14c8,040$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,912.395813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes72c3,461$2,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.8925837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes49c3,264$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.9214339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes67c2,806$1,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.25933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f16…7013backed No1c2,689$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes61c2,477$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.373647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No2c2,298$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.216291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes53c1,792$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.836945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x81ca…3b87backed Yes11c1,750$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,562.733943.6%17 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+65.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes45c1,604$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.2319040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x198a…3ca3backed Yes63c1,593$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.381573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+42%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes3c1,566$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.0218311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe231…4e3ebacked Yes65c1,565$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5c7…5510backed Yes75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.981384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No32c1,219$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.4515452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No13c1,084$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.784012.5%5 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-52.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed No48c1,050$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.442927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No3c1,012$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3726312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes6c1,004$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.717238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf225…c01cbacked Yes1c1,000$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988.04520%1 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick2cpaid+1,572.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa881…cd20backed Yes56c920.83$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.291650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+50.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes15c747.23$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.16524.6%16 W · 49 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+65.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xef47…6be1backed Yes5c709$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,851.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c707.15$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1520148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf64…ad49backed Yes12c701.61$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.57837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid+49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Yes69c676.76$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.661060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+43.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32a3…a818backed Yes68c675.2$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.442369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes61c617$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.6812839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c609.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.46865.8%5 W · 81 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c563.9$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.42717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes56c560.7$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3218323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf946…d542backed Yes59c547.14$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes51c538.08$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.137948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No5c518.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.07137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-81.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes4c465.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.36767.9%6 W · 70 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+52.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed No35c451.58$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.232441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…40fbbacked No22c444.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid+87.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44fa…2a4abacked Yes71c441.02$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes65c399.99$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.645738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes74c399.96$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.59447.9%45 W · 49 L-7.8wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c393.15$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.673042%6 W · 298 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes8c380.74$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.211717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+587.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes65c380$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.481681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No64c364.55$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.514944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes5c340.87$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.417020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Yes4c337.2$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.46650%3 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+804.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1589…a55fbacked Yes71c323.8$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.81080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc004…c095backed Yes70c321.18$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.355246.2%24 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed Yes61c320.13$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.927030%21 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+34.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c316.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9640712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No27c316.26$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.84748.9%23 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes56c312.12$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.114355.2%79 W · 64 L+16.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5bb8…69edbacked No4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick5cpaid+476.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c282.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2692522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes54c275.05$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.614969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe2a9…79a1backed No10c258.2$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.68633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No28c258.16$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1111720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8af…11f4backed Yes69c246.02$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.061090%9 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick73cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0db9…261cbacked Yes71c229.29$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed No5c224.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+130.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes76c216.76$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.414835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes71c216.03$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.651442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-22.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd311…1c1ebacked Yes51c214.84$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No45c212.64$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5189317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x96b0…3336backed No28c202.51$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes62c200$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.48543.5%37 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb357…b99cbacked Yes68c190.6$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.021258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes10c181.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.432254.5%12 W · 10 L+4.3wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+65.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05bd…82cabacked No35c179$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6802…b4f6backed No35c174$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes12c161.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+101.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No35c159.8$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.744148.8%20 W · 21 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick32cpaid+56.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x01c1…ef0fbacked No35c159$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3957…e7afbacked No35c158$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71be…61a0backed Yes65c153.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.52450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-30.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ec…3133backed No35c153$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5456…f26cbacked No38c132.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe311…a16fbacked No22c129$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1f8…420cbacked Yes47c105.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x912d…f1febacked Yes64c104.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.083423.5%8 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid+26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc939…6e0fbacked Yes65c100.19$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-29.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+17.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x61e5…2548backed Yes63c99.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+256.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No41c99.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.28720.7%18 W · 69 L-19.3wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x36d9…0869backed Yes65c99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes71c98.35$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8820544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5792…0bb3backed Yes51c97.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e33…e5d9backed Yes68c95.52$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde55…5909backed Yes65c94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7849…bd45backed Yes65c94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ad…c15bbacked Yes65c94$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec57…859cbacked Yes65c93$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0908…aa36backed Yes65c90$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee5…3ccabacked Yes65c87$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f07…b641backed Yes65c86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfad5…6b66backed Yes65c86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e98…5bf8backed Yes63c81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes73c75.07$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.964045%18 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…cca3backed No39c75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.252729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.