Movies · resolved market
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1bcfbf3799c5df7b055e8305f8b50c91de33802fd6990be4ebff4046a1330acb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,645 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafbc…e185backed No | 7c | 6,486$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 6c | 5,391$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.27 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 9c | 1,453$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked No | 7c | 1,357$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 7c | 1,283$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 3c | 863.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 781.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 6c | 733.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed No | 4c | 712.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 581.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 9c | 568.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 510.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 8c | 500.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 9c | 499$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 4c | 495.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a19…8f5bbacked No | 5c | 373.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 8c | 367.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 340.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…5f18backed No | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 6c | 311.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 5c | 256.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 251$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…1cf8backed No | 7c | 220.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed No | 6c | 202.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 6c | 201.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed No | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 7c | 187.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992a…01adbacked No | 6c | 179.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 6c | 174.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 167.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 7c | 167.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed No | 7c | 140.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will F1 win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jurassic World Rebirth win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Lost Bus win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.