Venezuela · resolved market
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc9eb3cd306825cdbaa370915eff398da4a25f6fb419abcd634bf4e731df934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1229…df38backed No | 6c | 7,858$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 5c | 2,900$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626d…ff68backed No | 12c | 2,668$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…c75bbacked No | 9c | 2,402$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,546$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…70b0backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 22c | 1,003$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 900$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…71cabacked No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 810.04$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…3fdbbacked No | 4c | 562.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8784…0a9bbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 480.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 8c | 431$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…20f4backed No | 2c | 401.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…a1d7backed No | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 336.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 301.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 273.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 7c | 256.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 7c | 252.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 78c | 247.45$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 8c | 218.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 7c | 182.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0c…b674backed No | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 176.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…9052backed No | 7c | 168.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 77c | 166$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 6c | 158.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6432…8616backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…ad1fbacked No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…6fc0backed No | 13c | 136.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 8c | 134.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 9c | 134.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf98f…0290backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…3d4dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…b03dbacked No | 21c | 51.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 38c | 44.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31?this page
- Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by July 31?No won
- Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.