AI · resolved market
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fd0079e6e1fedc9ded310a72dac22cfe7478bd93229dd146464cca454357df0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 69c | 7,214$4,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,231.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 32c | 6,563$2,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,085.78 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b873backed No | 30c | 4,542$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 14c | 3,052$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.12 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…24c0backed Yes | 60c | 1,500$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 20c | 1,434$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.98 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 29c | 1,020$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.28 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 3c | 619.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 39c | 564.6$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 17c | 480.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 68c | 475.94$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 2c | 424.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 68c | 364.01$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…611abacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 33c | 291.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 18c | 264.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes | 64c | 234.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…7f2cbacked Yes | 73c | 233.05$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 223.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 29c | 167.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 36c | 164.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.14 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 156$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296c…9e76backed No | 15c | 154.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c10abacked No | 15c | 142.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…c048backed No | 11c | 130.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 74c | 122.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb878…e3e2backed Yes | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 31c | 119.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 63c | 110.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 37c | 105$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +151.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 28c | 83.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a33…a5f7backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27b…3966backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 62c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…c0bbbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 58.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 67c | 50.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 35c | 50.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3d…929fbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 31c | 32.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 65c | 32.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cf…ed6ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…89ccbacked Yes | 80c | 28.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…328cbacked Yes | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…60f1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.