Olympics · resolved market
Olympic Women's Basketball: USA (-27.5) vs. Nigeria Spread
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4af7b121f2b6b2ff89a74458e01db3597c0259d75c35606e9000707d094904f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigeriaof USA, Nigeria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Nigeria | 55c | 3,391$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…06febacked USA | 44c | 3,088$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.53 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Nigeria | 37c | 949.24$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.46 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…67a9backed USA | 56c | 652$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked USA | 65c | 309.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…94ddbacked USA | 57c | 195.49$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Nigeria | 51c | 172$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…e291backed USA | 77c | 133.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed USA | 73c | 133$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed USA | 44c | 126$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Nigeria | 56c | 111.54$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed USA | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…237abacked Nigeria | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed USA | 38c | 99.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Nigeria | 51c | 97.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0c…809fbacked USA | 50c | 96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Nigeria | 65c | 59.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed USA | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…160abacked USA | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Nigeria | 30c | 42.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed USA | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…0ae3backed Nigeria | 58c | 28.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0c…33a2backed USA | 65c | 27.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb98…969dbacked Nigeria | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Nigeria | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.