Earnings · resolved market
Will Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeabd9a1533bb746c93634d2b4a806845f771e80f3c752f7f2a969d340eb3d2a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 968.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 58c | 548.35$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.82 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 39c | 415$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 63c | 322.05$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.85 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 32c | 249.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 44c | 225.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…6d2abacked Yes | 76c | 182.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 149.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 49c | 143.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed Yes | 35c | 143.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 51c | 100.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 66c | 99.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 53c | 93.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 20c | 88.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed No | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed No | 67c | 53.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 64c | 44.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 32.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…dd82backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.