Earnings · resolved market
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59fa6d040b5f47a8cb6ae947db533fd7f896e8ce4a5667d278045253a85a607f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 69c | 772.83$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.54 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 29c | 595.55$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.56 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 34c | 268.91$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.23 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 57c | 250.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.64 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 48c | 185.22$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 40c | 181.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.08 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 30c | 165.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed No | 72c | 137.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…8fa9backed No | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 74.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2278backed No | 76c | 65.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eee…2782backed No | 73c | 64.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.17 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…9ef9backed Yes | 39c | 27.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…e480backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4a…b98abacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 63cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.