Movies · resolved market
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e278d31e0eac4370324151b1daacb519869707c1743d0e77f47be5ecde523a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $570,932
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $598,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $570,932 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 85,300$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.96 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 65,714$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.36 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c15fbacked Yes | 1c | 17,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdf…ed7abacked Yes | 0c | 10,707$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 5c | 9,204$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.82 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd18f…681ebacked Yes | 3c | 7,786$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,365$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 18c | 6,000$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.32 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…c521backed No | 79c | 5,873$4,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.93 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 19c | 5,833$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 4c | 5,697$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 4,600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 3,510$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,199$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e3…8b45backed Yes | 3c | 2,924$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed Yes | 2c | 2,729$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1f…c4eabacked Yes | 19c | 2,604$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,324$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,160$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777e…2836backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…f92dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,538$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 77c | 1,484$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x597e…4cc4backed Yes | 11c | 1,240$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 12c | 1,206$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 66c | 873.86$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 727.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6c95backed Yes | 3c | 699.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d1…e5c5backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 4c | 510.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…2ec0backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 3c | 455.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 7c | 450$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 28c | 417.14$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 2c | 408$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…6799backed Yes | 54c | 405.58$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked Yes | 17c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 379.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…0f1ebacked Yes | 8c | 286.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Yes | 23c | 240$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bc…8a36backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 14c | 208.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 9c | 205.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked No | 62c | 200.32$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 24c | 187.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…cce3backed Yes | 11c | 167.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed No | 66c | 151.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9300…f0afbacked Yes | 26c | 120.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked No | 70c | 109.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c7…22eebacked Yes | 40c | 52.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x534f…616abacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb276…d4debacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…d88cbacked Yes | 36c | 32.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 40c | 27.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed No | 62c | 25.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9b…c130backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked No | 72c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $75m and $85m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross more than $105m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.