TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$496,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$315,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9739…159fbacked Yes4c97,888$3,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,636.041214.1%5 W · 116 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes3c81,113$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.9818719.3%36 W · 151 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-55.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd18f…681ebacked Yes15c42,373$6,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,490.7860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes0c22,099$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.592313%3 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-74%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes8c21,272$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,674.825848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes2c5,493$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.874427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes8c5,001$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.867839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes11c4,602$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.672114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-59.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777e…2836backed Yes10c3,953$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes9c3,463$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.38429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes15c2,915$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.491020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x63dd…c15fbacked Yes13c2,715$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes15c2,605$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3882516%4 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32e3…d066backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+88.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…b93fbacked Yes11c2,500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Yes11c2,486$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.551711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes10c2,324$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.827038.6%27 W · 43 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes15c2,152$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.581457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9059…a4fabacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12080%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes18c1,968$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes8c1,923$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.911286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes9c1,900$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.2601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6535…5b98backed Yes4c1,788$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5238.7%2 W · 21 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-81.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x49b8…762dbacked Yes17c1,764$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.051330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ab…8b3cbacked Yes6c1,705$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.73728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef7…4206backed Yes19c1,541$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.881136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes5c1,350$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.59296.9%2 W · 27 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed Yes11c1,162$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes6c1,100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6460%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes8c1,052$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8116614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9193…c86cbacked Yes10c1,044$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.842025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c1,033$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9587033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb1df…0f37backed Yes1c1,006$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-81.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes15c824.19$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.953330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c754.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…1ccebacked Yes7c750.08$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6248…51cfbacked Yes11c712.91$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bdf…ed7abacked Yes10c682.3$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes23c662.39$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6e3…8b45backed Yes4c646.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes18c616.88$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-74.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69bc…577dbacked Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…28ffbacked Yes5c537$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcede…f2f6backed Yes21c521$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.85933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No80c510.02$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed Yes23c503$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.65650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes5c499.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes24c425.53$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.58825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x640b…102abacked Yes7c401.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72119%4 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes14c400$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05de…6f02backed Yes7c358.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.89425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-54.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes4c351.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85fe…dedfbacked Yes7c350$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.89119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-64.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7105…c107backed Yes13c280.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1370%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5ed…2ec2backed Yes12c259.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5531…2952backed Yes6c251.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes16c238.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.432825%7 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37d0…2002backed Yes7c221.8$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6588…d868backed Yes17c220$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff4…fb3ebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed Yes26c190.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216e…6501backed Yes9c166$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.941435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes10c164.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.196320.6%13 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x509f…8fb7backed Yes31c161.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x302c…549dbacked Yes20c151.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Yes16c128.72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f17…39fbbacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes9c120.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.813613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x351f…6815backed Yes16c118.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4c…ff37backed Yes23c110.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b55…02f8backed Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick31cpaid-90.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbb33…5924backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-84.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd44…6565backed Yes14c90.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes17c81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes15c65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.036937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2728…a83cbacked Yes19c63.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…9b61backed Yes20c49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb276…d4debacked No77c21.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.