Earnings · resolved market
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1690f2620f8d5c1413c2cdcb741be7ad4b049e55d45aefc6607f497e430191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 67c | 748.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 55c | 591.63$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.84 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 41c | 366.79$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.21 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 40c | 350.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.55 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…c7bebacked Yes | 44c | 229.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 221.89$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 26c | 175$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 33c | 170$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 56c | 154.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 74c | 135.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 47c | 132.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 10c | 111.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 40c | 110.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 44c | 110.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 58c | 103.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 44c | 87.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 85.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 49c | 57.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…78e9backed No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 54c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 49c | 43.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 37c | 43.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…8aacbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 57c | 32.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a93…9e17backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 58c | 21.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xada4…0bb8backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.