Earnings · resolved market
Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27b52a955b2c87e8f7fff0b820c9948bcaeb45c8ed28ee19053e65814d321c90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 1,082$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.76 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 75c | 914.36$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.47 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 32c | 717.31$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.61 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 80c | 414.23$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed No | 22c | 380.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +173.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 26c | 380$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 69c | 369.69$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 297.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 31c | 289.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…3499backed Yes | 80c | 250.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 24c | 248.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…d823backed Yes | 69c | 213.62$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 30c | 199.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 70c | 144$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 28c | 143.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 71c | 137.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 134.74$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…75cbbacked Yes | 72c | 125.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 71c | 119.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 69c | 114.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 22c | 112.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed No | 29c | 111$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe701…942ebacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…4413backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…3cd6backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 75c | 74.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98bb…d1f9backed Yes | 75c | 60.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 22c | 60.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 80c | 53.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 23c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…fbc5backed No | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6346…7c71backed Yes | 76c | 45.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…7165backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf246…fa5fbacked Yes | 76c | 32.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Yes | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…7b24backed Yes | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.1wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd4…d37abacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Yes | 80c | 18.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 75c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.