Earnings · resolved market
Will Icahn Enterprises (IEP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5f8ed35e7f9078284a32c6dd127f90e251df77cfdca0cb48c7c70ce8a56a9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 49c | 2,739$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 14c | 926$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 42c | 780.53$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.17 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 60c | 613.68$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 27c | 506.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.18 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 33c | 497.85$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.56 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2278backed No | 19c | 451.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 34c | 292.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…1f70backed No | 23c | 262.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 71c | 199.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 199.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 184.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 54c | 166$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 142.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 69c | 127.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 65c | 106.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 59c | 103.92$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 53c | 92.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 22c | 91.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 32c | 81.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 43c | 52.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 66c | 45.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…9a20backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 63c | 40.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 35c | 39.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…1e49backed No | 72c | 37.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc10a…664bbacked No | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551d…cd7cbacked No | 73c | 33.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…9946backed No | 77c | 33.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcd…f229backed No | 77c | 26.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0430…a31bbacked No | 73c | 25.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee8…4060backed No | 73c | 22.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 77cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…7afdbacked No | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd5…32f8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…01babacked No | 73c | 18.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…1e26backed No | 73c | 17.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…ed8dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.