Earnings · resolved market
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ff0ca5821d8b8407e6855031c49f797a73dc0dd8301039bbf25a9c26bf70411
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaae2…021bbacked Yes | 75c | 3,939$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked No | 53c | 946.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…9de8backed No | 52c | 613.64$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 37c | 557.57$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.4 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 42c | 549.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 49c | 515.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.31 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 38c | 294$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 52c | 233.83$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 25c | 215.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 199.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.98 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…75cbbacked Yes | 70c | 179.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 55c | 177.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 26c | 170.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed No | 66c | 165.13$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb09…8879backed No | 73c | 136.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…3499backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 73c | 127.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed No | 29c | 110$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 64c | 106.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 50c | 88.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 85.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 37c | 81.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 55c | 73.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 52c | 67.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f8…6620backed Yes | 70c | 59.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed Yes | 53c | 58.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 67c | 45.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed No | 30c | 42.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked Yes | 75c | 37.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…1570backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 33c | 35.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce88…7423backed Yes | 68c | 29.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9e…154abacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…ce89backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…ff50backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…63a2backed Yes | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…9491backed Yes | 63c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.