Earnings · resolved market
Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc2c0328e62b2577e2946404db39250331f18036f866c17a80e03fc83bbfcb73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,117
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 3,937$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2690…6b67backed Yes | 77c | 1,709$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 68c | 597.78$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 27c | 584.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.52 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 399.99$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 27c | 398.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 387.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b5…737abacked No | 30c | 331.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…f38abacked Yes | 73c | 289.37$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed Yes | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 50c | 282$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 32c | 277$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf847…507cbacked Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +104%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 8c | 201.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0a36backed No | 28c | 177.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 22c | 174.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 32c | 155.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 144.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 36c | 139.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 72c | 138.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 73c | 137.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 65c | 134.79$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…389ebacked Yes | 80c | 131.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 23c | 116.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…80c8backed Yes | 28c | 116.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 19c | 110.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 33c | 100.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 69c | 95.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde3…4f66backed No | 29c | 86.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…aa24backed Yes | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…c2e3backed No | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 28c | 62.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 34c | 58.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 29c | 56.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 39c | 48.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…db69backed Yes | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 42c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 51c | 44.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 42c | 43.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4805…47a2backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…3753backed No | 46c | 43.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…7014backed Yes | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…ead2backed No | 33c | 40.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +300%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1754backed No | 35c | 36.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed Yes | 72c | 35.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…9e89backed Yes | 74c | 33.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 62c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 68c | 29.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4c…89aebacked Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…e60ebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…5628backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…ee3fbacked Yes | 69c | 23.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 67c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 54c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…ffc4backed Yes | 76c | 19.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.