Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd13d5a537f34aa20502377e31e7b7db09fcd47450bba08606db26e6c1a38bf

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $185,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $127,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes	0c	28,266$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	127	9.4%12 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	1c	25,746$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.03	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…a410backed Yes	2c	18,196$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.33	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2756…7737backed Yes	1c	6,978$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.1	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+724.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	2c	4,741$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.55	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0f…68e1backed Yes	2c	4,633$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.09	20	35%7 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb37…ff74backed Yes	7c	4,586$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.89	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	4,380$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.66	221	25.8%57 W · 164 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	4,325$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.13	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,276$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.33	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	12c	3,621$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.42	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,114$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	4c	1,427$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.01	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes	18c	1,059$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.89	145	28.3%41 W · 104 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2fa…8755backed Yes	16c	906.97$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.32	33	33.3%11 W · 22 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x918a…29c3backed Yes	22c	899.58$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes	2c	765.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	172	17.4%30 W · 142 L	-5.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes	6c	682.45$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	326	29.1%95 W · 231 L	+14.5wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa154…321cbacked No	76c	667.76$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.57	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ee…a587backed No	76c	600$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e7b…8767backed Yes	2c	568.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	110	58.2%64 W · 46 L	+13.1wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9a87…b9a9backed Yes	2c	525.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes	8c	481.49$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.77	167	4.2%7 W · 160 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-51.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No	79c	407.89$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.16	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	+6.8wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	14c	393.97$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.16	283	37.1%105 W · 178 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	9c	305.33$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.48	792	31.1%246 W · 546 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes	19c	300$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	185	45.9%85 W · 100 L	+5.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	8c	290.28$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	80	13.8%11 W · 69 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes	24c	275.42$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.1	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53b4…cef0backed Yes	19c	260$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.4	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3912…c081backed Yes	20c	250.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	77	36.4%28 W · 49 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf9…7205backed Yes	13c	230.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf07f…9a2cbacked Yes	18c	222.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Yes	18c	220.76$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	132	42.4%56 W · 76 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	8c	217.45$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes	18c	205$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	222	43.7%97 W · 125 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8c40…0c8fbacked Yes	24c	200$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	89	34.8%31 W · 58 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	36.7%36 W · 62 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce77…86c4backed Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0255…4eb0backed Yes	21c	199.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	122	63.9%78 W · 44 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	60cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	22c	184.56$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.52	1,686	20.6%347 W · 1,339 L	-28.4wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x604e…f1cdbacked Yes	16c	179.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf028…6caebacked Yes	23c	173.91$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	15cpaid	+105.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…03cebacked Yes	21c	165.23$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.45	20	25%5 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	80c	160$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x823c…d828backed Yes	19c	157.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked No	76c	146.52$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.16	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2b…ec21backed Yes	18c	138.89$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b73…e9f3backed Yes	17c	118.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27cc…3b96backed Yes	11c	118.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefab…258ebacked Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	19c	111$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	13c	107.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.93	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked Yes	29c	104.81$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	99	52.5%52 W · 47 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaae4…58b1backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd46…38eebacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-54%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…4c66backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+394.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	199	58.3%116 W · 83 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9690…8bfabacked Yes	18c	94$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.1wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	-5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae54…2886backed Yes	25c	81.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+82.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb4…5ecbbacked Yes	15c	70$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e92…395abacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	55	20%11 W · 44 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x570a…e1f0backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	21c	61.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xed01…0ceabacked Yes	25c	61.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.2wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a8…7d37backed No	79c	58.58$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.3	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a4…3c7abacked Yes	21c	56.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff93…2072backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1335…fac5backed Yes	25c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x524a…680dbacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…f58ebacked Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x360e…f2f3backed Yes	22c	45.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e4f…a849backed No	79c	40.78$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.56	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa606…d399backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb089…b6c7backed Yes	31c	35.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No	80c	35$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x669d…19b0backed No	60c	22.75$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.1	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6325…cfaabacked No	77c	21.74$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	95	55.8%53 W · 42 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5704…84a5backed No	76c	19.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.74	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-4.7wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7af…f22ebacked No	79c	17.53$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.68	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No	76c	14.91$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.58	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event