Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1310bc2d0a325738b9e7c5fc1d8491caa459f5c08f5687ed17e09fff1d7718f

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $49,839
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,839 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9337…a410backed Yes	2c	8,793$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.6	118	11.9%14 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes	6c	2,755$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.28	1,945	42.7%831 W · 1,114 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,243$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.7	779	9.6%75 W · 704 L	-11.8wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	1,644$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.7	202	1.5%3 W · 199 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de2…d073backed Yes	4c	1,370$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.72	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd311…61b4backed Yes	3c	1,178$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.63	48	25%12 W · 36 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+110.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	4c	1,151$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	100	12%12 W · 88 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb19f…25a8backed Yes	3c	963.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9219…d304backed Yes	4c	816.47$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.33	62	35.5%22 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8044…ac75backed Yes	9c	806.68$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	58	34.5%20 W · 38 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4c4…a006backed Yes	7c	757.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	25cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f32…583fbacked Yes	7c	682.73$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0194…89d4backed Yes	5c	662.89$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	2c	583.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.91	84	11.9%10 W · 74 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93cd…7f4abacked Yes	6c	519.15$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66bc…25c9backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	332	21.7%72 W · 260 L	-8.8wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0404…8353backed Yes	5c	498.22$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	496.65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	4c	463.63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	4c	461.76$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	56	3.6%2 W · 54 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+93.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa220…4c66backed Yes	3c	438.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+394.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	3c	357.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	116	11.2%13 W · 103 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-66.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes	6c	301.28$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a8…7d57backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb62…0244backed Yes	8c	294.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.21per pick	23cpaid	+77.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62d…315cbacked Yes	7c	281.28$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	7c	211.11$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes	5c	210.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.53	96	27.1%26 W · 70 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	+1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe44…1523backed Yes	10c	201.35$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96ac…5adcbacked Yes	6c	172.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event