TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7b73…e9f3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
43
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Boxing, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 54 out of 100; worst Tennis at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Lamine Yamal score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will Dani Olmo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.72
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$126.2
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$5.5
Will Kylian Mbappe score 9+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$133
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$148Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$69.61
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$15.99
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+111.8%+$97.99
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.53
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+289.6%+$89.2
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.5
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shotsbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.5
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.2
Will Algeria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$32.25
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Croatia finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
Will Darwin Nunez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+56.9%+$18.14
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-49.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+100.5%+$48.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$22.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Ravena Oliveira (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Juliana Miller · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Partido Popular (PP) win 53-55 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.