Fifa International · resolved market
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5642e62fe6ea49cf87860f1560a37fc5ba09e6b2872179a17f596b3a115e63ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3b8…3f4ebacked No | 21c | 2,066$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.69 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 79c | 1,903$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.77 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 4c | 1,048$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed No | 5c | 836.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802e…76fdbacked Yes | 69c | 435.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.9 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…e9f3backed No | 30c | 165.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 19c | 155.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 373 | 50.1%187 W · 186 L | +45.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 329 | 59.6%196 W · 133 L | +21.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shotsthis page
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assistsNo won
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsYes won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 3+ goalsNo won
- Junya Itō: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ shotsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsYes won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ assistsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 2+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 3+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.