Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e3323998d481ede55dfd629adfaf550c5e2f6c126ca730bdeb877dd620453f2

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $47,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $47,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,353 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	3c	16,667$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	3c	7,051$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.43	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…1fc7backed Yes	2c	4,161$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	+3.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x851a…6b12backed Yes	3c	1,954$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4029…c8b3backed Yes	3c	1,911$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf87c…8c97backed Yes	3c	1,852$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	161	23.6%38 W · 123 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf485…d5cebacked Yes	2c	1,480$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	3c	1,318$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7195…f4eebacked Yes	3c	1,111$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	106	17.9%19 W · 87 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0486…0a0bbacked Yes	3c	1,008$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	41	2.4%1 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	+29%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe86e…e26ebacked Yes	2c	800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	30	0%0 W · 30 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc383…734bbacked Yes	2c	687.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+100.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cd9…fcfebacked Yes	2c	435.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	96	7.3%7 W · 89 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	3c	400$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b59…be19backed Yes	3c	362.43$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	323	12.1%39 W · 284 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event