Fifa International · resolved market
Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shots
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe10a5cd624de71b63a2408f3b17e6e1927a095077ae558a0e5531f3f4a705b65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 57c | 522.62$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.72 | 362 | 50%181 W · 181 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked No | 60c | 514.7$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.8 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 57c | 451.61$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Yes | 43c | 349.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | +12.5wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 42c | 341.48$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 197 | 13.7%27 W · 170 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked Yes | 40c | 314$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b43…0714backed Yes | 44c | 226.47$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -7.0wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Yes | 41c | 217.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.27 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5892…2d1cbacked Yes | 46c | 135.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff88…601dbacked No | 52c | 114.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 80 | 62.5%50 W · 30 L | +11.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c86…6a80backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Yes | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a0…a986backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdf…8116backed Yes | 41c | 96.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…acc8backed No | 54c | 93.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked No | 53c | 86.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 335 | 55.5%186 W · 149 L | +19.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46f…0e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 67.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 62.3%101 W · 61 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 44c | 54.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 423 | 36.9%156 W · 267 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 55c | 49.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 58c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85db…0d12backed Yes | 42c | 47.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed No | 55c | 47.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb408…e303backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b77…2d2bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…31b8backed Yes | 43c | 25.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Yes | 42c | 24.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 88 | 58%51 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shotsthis page
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assistsNo won
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsYes won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 3+ goalsNo won
- Junya Itō: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ shotsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsYes won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ assistsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 2+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 3+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.