Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86e2bfb16b52271e9d39514710a939d382a026b7f2d7aca71c7d46cb64ce4833

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $44,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $44,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1f5f…1695backed Yes	10c	5,708$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	372	23.9%89 W · 283 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Yes	9c	3,000$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277	352	29.3%103 W · 249 L	+14.0wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc28c…36f3backed Yes	10c	2,904$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.01	90	17.8%16 W · 74 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	454	28%127 W · 327 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf87c…8c97backed Yes	10c	1,561$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	161	23.6%38 W · 123 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…c8e4backed Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	38cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcd2…0381backed Yes	11c	1,463$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.84	108	19.4%21 W · 87 L	+4.9wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fc1…0c67backed Yes	10c	1,081$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.12	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-72.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5945…5971backed Yes	10c	976.2$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.62	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7195…f4eebacked Yes	10c	959.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	106	17.9%19 W · 87 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf485…d5cebacked Yes	10c	900$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd255…bbcabacked Yes	10c	900$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c48…f6f6backed Yes	10c	723.82$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.62	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39fb…32c7backed Yes	10c	690$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	10c	680.41$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.5	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a22…c3b5backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-20%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc0…7c96backed Yes	10c	591.9$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.19	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81ed…59f5backed Yes	10c	533.99$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.4	608	21.9%133 W · 475 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd73…4da1backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	197	13.7%27 W · 170 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4630…7de2backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	356	14.3%51 W · 305 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x851a…6b12backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	96	31.3%30 W · 66 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes	10c	499.9$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	1,206	32.7%394 W · 812 L	-8.0wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4029…c8b3backed Yes	10c	465.8$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.58	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0763…6d79backed Yes	11c	464.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa278…3369backed Yes	10c	459.25$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.09	1,111	24.3%270 W · 841 L	-32.2wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4629…ab9abacked Yes	10c	443.9$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.39	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb70…be84backed Yes	7c	353.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	14.1%9 W · 55 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd569…cfefbacked Yes	10c	349$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Yes	9c	326.41$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.91	2,804	46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L	-27.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes	9c	321.13$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	318	9.4%30 W · 288 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23e6…7bbfbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	27.1%48 W · 129 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+3.7wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef5d…71b7backed Yes	10c	269.7$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.97	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	31cpaid	+66.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cf…17e2backed Yes	16c	240.59$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.32	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b22…59b5backed Yes	10c	210$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-3.7wins	-0.25per pick	38cpaid	-73.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	30cpaid	+27.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x786d…b89bbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	522	17.4%91 W · 431 L	-11.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe547…0443backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	71	11.3%8 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	345	26.1%90 W · 255 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…5af0backed Yes	10c	196.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.66	309	28.8%89 W · 220 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf621…544ebacked Yes	10c	188.38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	61	42.6%26 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	10c	168.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…7d02backed Yes	11c	168.34$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.52	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	33cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes	9c	166.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1,388	15.1%210 W · 1,178 L	-16.0wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac9…b4bbbacked Yes	10c	154.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a23…a980backed Yes	10c	150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.39per pick	21cpaid	+420.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39f…8d53backed Yes	10c	146.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	34	50%17 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e6d…08a8backed Yes	10c	140$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	125	27.2%34 W · 91 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	366	31.1%114 W · 252 L	+18.2wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe80f…3354backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	317	28.1%89 W · 228 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb08…f30bbacked Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e1…69e2backed Yes	10c	110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	83	41%34 W · 49 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd09…83c0backed Yes	10c	108.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf52f…64ddbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-63%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d70…cd72backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e5…17d0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	50	20%10 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbeb…f499backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b6…15cdbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b3…2beabacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0cd…1e2bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1009…d779backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71da…3cccbacked Yes	17c	77.5$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.45	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+82.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event