Fifa International · resolved market
Rayan: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac61b83d30050e94d350566beb412e0daeade17c7ebcdf95b421fa7682eff543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 80c | 2,753$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.64 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 80c | 2,397$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.64 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 23c | 883.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 278 | 20.1%56 W · 222 L | -17.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 78c | 664.02$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 80c | 571.41$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.28 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed No | 77c | 565.56$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…c6a6backed No | 79c | 499.92$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 128 | 75.8%97 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…c149backed Yes | 21c | 469.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 78c | 399.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 288 | 73.3%211 W · 77 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f28…62f5backed Yes | 22c | 269.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 20c | 231.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…cd6bbacked Yes | 21c | 116.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 101.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 272 | 42.3%115 W · 157 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 28.2%51 W · 130 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458f…d8a1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -61%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…7b6cbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…b512backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 79c | 44.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc3…d8e9backed No | 80c | 16.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayan: 1+ goalsthis page
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 1+ shots on targetYes won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ goalsNo won
- Ayase Ueda: 3+ shotsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ assistsYes won
- Bruno Guimarães: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bruno Guimarães: 2+ assistsNo won
- Casemiro: 1+ goalsYes won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 1+ goalsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ assistsNo won
- Daizen Maeda: 2+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 1+ goalsNo won
- Endrick: 3+ goalsNo won
- Junya Itō: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 1+ shotsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ assistsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ goalsNo won
- Keito Nakamura: 2+ shotsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assistsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goalsNo won
- Lucas Paquetá: 1+ shotsYes won
- Lucas Paquetá: 2+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ assistsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 2+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ goalsNo won
- Matheus Cunha: 3+ shotsYes won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ assistsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 1+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 2+ goalsNo won
- Neymar Jr: 3+ goalsNo won
- Raphinha: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan: 1+ assistsNo won
- Rayan: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 1+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ assistsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goalsNo won
- Vinícius Júnior: 3+ shotsYes won
- Vinícius Júnior: 4+ shotsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.