Earnings · resolved market
Will Bumble (BMBL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c38b46940cc6c0fc0059c8feac91ac379dfeda62e99d93c85072d1606c8dc14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 70c | 1,479$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.07 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 28c | 621.98$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.64 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 26c | 307.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 30c | 165.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 162.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 65c | 147.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 36c | 133$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…c502backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 26c | 98.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 74c | 77.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 28c | 76.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed No | 76c | 76.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 63cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b2febacked Yes | 27c | 74.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 75c | 66.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked No | 78c | 64.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 29c | 55.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 22c | 54.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…df33backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 79c | 43.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed No | 72c | 40.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d8…0af3backed Yes | 37c | 40.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 37.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…a55dbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 30.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc2…687ebacked Yes | 34c | 29.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 80c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…7afdbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb6…8d69backed No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b01…7481backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.