Earnings · resolved market
Will FS KKR Capital (FSK) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee42d7233531b4f1498ac62c557b9ea83e7d4c1c6bfbcee6c08c040d6b154f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,420
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 8c | 574.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 381.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.29 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 68c | 306$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.68 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 36c | 301.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 12c | 283.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 39c | 244.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 33c | 240.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.08 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 237.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 211.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.58 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 72c | 209.9$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked No | 14c | 208.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 29c | 177.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.83 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 29c | 174.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.76 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 52c | 163.03$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 62c | 160.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f76…e72bbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 70cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 49c | 130.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked Yes | 31c | 127.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed Yes | 40c | 125.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 59c | 113.76$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 12c | 108.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 47c | 107.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 25c | 103.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 36c | 103.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…d49dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 102 | 72.5%74 W · 28 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 74c | 99.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…6835backed Yes | 38c | 98.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 59cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53f6…dbf6backed Yes | 26c | 90.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 30c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed Yes | 78c | 77.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 71c | 77.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 40c | 73.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 26c | 60.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 35c | 54.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 40c | 37.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…3b88backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 74c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…7cd2backed No | 79c | 15.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.