Earnings · resolved market
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab8cf10e11a39987f360a64fc2b5b3661a67c368bbc64ef27831d60e8b1f1bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 57c | 2,299$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.87 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed Yes | 43c | 1,665$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.32 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed No | 71c | 574.2$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.94 | 21 | 95.2%20 W · 1 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 63cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 44c | 438.74$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.48 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed Yes | 29c | 283.86$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 44c | 271.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed Yes | 47c | 242.54$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…ab60backed No | 61c | 233$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 52c | 223.39$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 57c | 167.66$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed No | 61c | 163.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…aebebacked Yes | 42c | 162.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 44c | 147$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8598…199fbacked Yes | 42c | 133.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked Yes | 47c | 127.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 50c | 117.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 45c | 103.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…b632backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 65c | 87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 58c | 81.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…42e3backed Yes | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 65c | 70$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 51c | 68.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811d…371bbacked No | 68c | 57.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 35c | 56.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…613fbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…1f70backed Yes | 41c | 49.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 43.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…7283backed No | 59c | 33.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb283…7019backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 57c | 25.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 42c | 24.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 57c | 19.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.