Weather · resolved market
Will Chicago record the first snowfall?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c236208c8fca6b1ce2f4c9b91bc1c2dbb255e3fec064a3c0ed2dcb82b225485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes | 15c | 2,524$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 1,002$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.54 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 17c | 859.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed Yes | 71c | 757.01$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 19c | 701.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.65 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 391.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 9c | 318.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 308.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 296.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 49c | 250$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 18c | 237.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…5304backed Yes | 60c | 210$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 63c | 202.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…14c5backed Yes | 52c | 193.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked Yes | 63c | 177.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 20c | 176$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9df…8517backed Yes | 63c | 157.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Yes | 67c | 150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 127.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…fcaebacked Yes | 60c | 120.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 17c | 119$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cd…e98dbacked Yes | 42c | 117.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 60c | 113.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…06b8backed No | 41c | 105$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f27…256cbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked No | 77c | 94.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e9ebbacked Yes | 42c | 90.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…ea1dbacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 73c | 61.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…d40ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 58c | 47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…61b6backed Yes | 54c | 42.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 47c | 38.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…bc54backed Yes | 64c | 28.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe169…8d66backed Yes | 50c | 27.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6838…4fabbacked Yes | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…1249backed Yes | 63c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago record the first snowfall?this page
- Will Detroit record the first snowfall?Yes won
- Will New York City record the first snowfall?No won
- Will St. Louis record the first snowfall?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.