Weather · resolved market
Will Detroit record the first snowfall?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb891d599b75f454a663873ff7495141fd4c8d1b36f378bb593464cf5ebeed76c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 69c | 1,060$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes | 40c | 862.58$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 59c | 721.89$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.24 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 13c | 635.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 31c | 569.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.55 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 557.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c3…fcaebacked Yes | 22c | 474.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 415.16$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 355.01$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 322.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 60c | 273.87$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 48c | 239.74$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.56 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…eb0abacked Yes | 23c | 196$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 69c | 183.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.33 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 32c | 155.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 39c | 152.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 17c | 136.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 40c | 129.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 126 | 24.6%31 W · 95 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbb…9e7cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 46c | 87.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 45c | 85.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 45c | 84.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…b40ebacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 82.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…6a42backed Yes | 32c | 76.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…fed7backed Yes | 34c | 74.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d8…525fbacked Yes | 14c | 73.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a6…8924backed Yes | 45c | 55.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 64c | 52.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f2…d8efbacked Yes | 70c | 52.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd17…9bfbbacked Yes | 77c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 28c | 50.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb847…4540backed Yes | 32c | 37.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…529cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…cd68backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Detroit record the first snowfall?this page
- Will Chicago record the first snowfall?No won
- Will New York City record the first snowfall?No won
- Will St. Louis record the first snowfall?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.