NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d9c556388913cbf2fdaf43e10d769c2ac1c2ac9b134d6289382869ac19b5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 3,068$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa8…c219backed Grizzlies | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Grizzlies | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Cavaliers | 58c | 1,003$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.71 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 51c | 960.21$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.52 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Cavaliers | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Cavaliers | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cavaliers | 60c | 600$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Grizzlies | 51c | 212.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cavaliers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Grizzlies | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Cavaliers | 58c | 173$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Cavaliers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Cavaliers | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d34ebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 161$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…7a5bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 158$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7517…79dbbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 152$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…d493backed Cavaliers | 55c | 149$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Cavaliers | 56c | 148.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcadf…ad87backed Cavaliers | 55c | 143$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Cavaliers | 41c | 141.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Cavaliers | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aae…69cfbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 124$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491a…a220backed Cavaliers | 55c | 115$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Cavaliers | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 45c | 94.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Cavaliers | 58c | 86.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Cavaliers | 59c | 84.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Cavaliers | 57c | 82.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e2…31e4backed Cavaliers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…6296backed Cavaliers | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Grizzlies | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Cavaliers | 57c | 49.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…bc8abacked Cavaliers | 56c | 46.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Grizzlies | 41c | 40.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 43c | 36.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…2602backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…48aebacked Cavaliers | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Grizzlies | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…aec0backed Cavaliers | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac7…03efbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…26bbbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Cavaliers | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…a766backed Cavaliers | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Cavaliers | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.