NBA · resolved market
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86f77c5529328cae810786bc2b95c1c0c30ca67a673035babd345e28f466f3e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 12,436$5,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,820.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Over | 57c | 5,555$3,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,166.35 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Over | 53c | 1,520$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.71 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 44c | 1,114$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.86 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 610.56$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.14 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 140 | 40%56 W · 84 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 269$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 226.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 216$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 59c | 150$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Under | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Under | 44c | 91.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Over | 55c | 91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 56c | 62.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 55.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Over | 57c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Over | 55c | 22.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…67e3backed Over | 57c | 21.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd4…cc98backed Over | 59c | 19.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Over | 58c | 18.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.