NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6dc4084c46908f57e4b0c9d9f5368510dcda1d2b022ed2de5ab2ad130deb5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Cavaliers, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Grizzlies | 50c | 2,901$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.76 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Grizzlies | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 51c | 2,064$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Cavaliers | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Cavaliers | 48c | 1,999$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 1,574$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.47 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…059ebacked Grizzlies | 51c | 1,171$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.62 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,133$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,092$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.29 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Cavaliers | 52c | 1,085$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.83 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4439…585fbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 1,053$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Grizzlies | 50c | 1,009$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.48 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 999.89$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.94 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 51c | 991$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.4 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 877.8$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 856.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.93 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Cavaliers | 18c | 749.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Cavaliers | 52c | 700$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Grizzlies | 47c | 620.48$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.85 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216a…e47dbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 614.62$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…3cf7backed Grizzlies | 48c | 608.9$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 48c | 513$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Cavaliers | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Cavaliers | 53c | 470$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 444$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Grizzlies | 47c | 429.56$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.91 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Cavaliers | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…3308backed Grizzlies | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Grizzlies | 48c | 312.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.37 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Grizzlies | 48c | 290$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Grizzlies | 49c | 288.29$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.03 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 45c | 218.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Cavaliers | 51c | 188.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Cavaliers | 54c | 186.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Cavaliers | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Grizzlies | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Grizzlies | 47c | 133.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 203 | 56.7%115 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Cavaliers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Cavaliers | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Cavaliers | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Cavaliers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Grizzlies | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Grizzlies | 51c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…8d07backed Cavaliers | 52c | 93.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Cavaliers | 55c | 90.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Cavaliers | 53c | 87.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Cavaliers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536b…8134backed Grizzlies | 51c | 73.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…02a6backed Cavaliers | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Cavaliers | 53c | 60.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Cavaliers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8043…7fe3backed Cavaliers | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…3215backed Cavaliers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Cavaliers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0b…1466backed Cavaliers | 54c | 36.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Cavaliers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…2f33backed Cavaliers | 52c | 23.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Cavaliers | 53c | 20.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4476backed Cavaliers | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 240.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.