NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x444779535c27d1ad04166ce299dce2bdff1213ac634ba05486ede975dd644b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 51c | 10,508$5,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,172.76 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 54c | 5,835$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150.81 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…af64backed Under | 54c | 5,835$3,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150.81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 3,979$1,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,983.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,647$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 1,578$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.57 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 49c | 1,323$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.52 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 760$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.4 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 755.41$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa499…7873backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 599$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 472.23$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.67 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 367.86$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.04 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 46c | 149.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…b602backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 46c | 92.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d45…1ba7backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 58c | 51.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…a766backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Pelicans won
- Thunder vs. PelicansThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.