NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11106ec7802eccf8ececefdfb08025ce0a03b2406e790fcbdceeb740d2c26f8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 10,555$5,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,408.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 48c | 5,929$2,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,083 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.94 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 50c | 3,992$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.86 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Under | 51c | 2,139$1,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,091 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…e803backed Under | 51c | 1,385$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.14 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,351$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.87 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 46c | 639.97$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.58 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 595$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 587$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.5 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Under | 49c | 222.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.64 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 193.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20a…2de4backed Under | 56c | 156.97$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 151$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 151$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1708…bffebacked Over | 51c | 139.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…9166backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 171 | 45.6%78 W · 93 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…6e5cbacked Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 94.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 36c | 82.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Under | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3126…9dabbacked Under | 58c | 70.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 54c | 60.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…4da0backed Under | 53c | 47.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 45.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 55c | 45.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…33bfbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 100 | 63%63 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…3348backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ef…a7a4backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Pelicans won
- Thunder vs. PelicansThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.