NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b1a9d2fbce34f1b8417f69f8cc83c22f704b24fcf7468b037746b5e0dd7de66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Thunder, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Pelicans | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…18c5backed Thunder | 51c | 2,459$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Pelicans | 49c | 2,449$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,248.98 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 47c | 2,121$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Pelicans | 50c | 2,010$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.79 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,954$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.1 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb00…42e9backed Thunder | 51c | 1,700$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 51c | 1,595$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.15 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Pelicans | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.6 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Thunder | 53c | 1,235$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.01 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Thunder | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffad…87fdbacked Thunder | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 48c | 983.74$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Thunder | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder | 51c | 758.65$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.91 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Pelicans | 33c | 750$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1377…56aebacked Thunder | 50c | 624.31$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.16 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 49c | 611.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Thunder | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Thunder | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Thunder | 51c | 490$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b0…5c3fbacked Pelicans | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Pelicans | 67c | 375$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Thunder | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Thunder | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Thunder | 48c | 278.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Pelicans | 54c | 246.81$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Pelicans | 47c | 240$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.15 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Thunder | 50c | 213$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Thunder | 52c | 192.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Pelicans | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 53c | 171$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 67c | 154$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.18 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Pelicans | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Thunder | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Thunder | 52c | 100.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 160 | 61.3%98 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Thunder | 52c | 100.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Pelicans | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…f49cbacked Thunder | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Pelicans | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder | 51c | 98.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Thunder | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 824 | 40.4%333 W · 491 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 50c | 81.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 51c | 77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Thunder | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pelicans | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Pelicans | 51c | 58.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Thunder | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Pelicans | 49c | 51.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Thunder | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Thunder | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Pelicans | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Pelicans | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7972…930fbacked Thunder | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -12.3wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Thunder | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Pelicans | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Pelicans | 50c | 40.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Pelicans | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Thunder | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Thunder | 52c | 38.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Thunder | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Pelicans | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d3…ada0backed Thunder | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Thunder | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Pelicans | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Thunder | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…d559backed Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…ce94backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…4970backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Thunder | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Pelicans won
- Thunder vs. PelicansThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.