TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Pelicans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,429
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,429 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9376…c075backed Thunder53c943.4$500 inWon+$443.414156%79 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans47c904.49$425 inLost-$425.115,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pelicans48c125.37$60 inLost-$60.182,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Thunder52c96.13$50 inWon+$46.1416061.3%98 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Pelicans53c93.91$50 inLost-$49.6213550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked Thunder53c50$27 inWon+$23.55856.9%33 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa072…9e34backed Pelicans51c25$13 inLost-$12.758450%42 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder49c25$12 inWon+$12.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.