NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7edf84917ea5e7497d1d66335db37d2b5271a7d05e4782301f50579590605397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 38,976$20,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,274.78 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 23,036$10,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,788.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 8,352$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,047$3,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.65 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.51 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Over | 55c | 2,300$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 48c | 2,070$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.6 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 48c | 1,652$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.82 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,027$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.42 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 47c | 1,009$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.23 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 47c | 952$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.22 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Over | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 48c | 260$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 50c | 202.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 51c | 196.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 168.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.74 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 88.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb000…558dbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…8703backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 48c | 33.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Under | 46c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Over | 49c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 224.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Pelicans won
- Thunder vs. PelicansThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.