NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f3d55dfc4a905a33f5937ef29dabdae29f6592ed6070aa7e4dc8d388eb7585a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Pelicans | 45c | 3,335$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.02 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Warriors | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Pelicans | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.99 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Warriors | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 381.36$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 55c | 296$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Warriors | 54c | 222.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Warriors | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…81d6backed Warriors | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Warriors | 56c | 88.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3b…51dabacked Warriors | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…a811backed Warriors | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Pelicans | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Warriors | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…4e86backed Warriors | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec67…c2a6backed Warriors | 54c | 22.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Warriors | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Warriors | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. PelicansWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.