NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2afebba41b24676957cc59273155e52693f747c31facfc7fb08b48be048b6fc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 2,152$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Under | 53c | 999.99$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 691.82$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 626.99$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 47c | 599.98$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…0aa7backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 48c | 149.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 48c | 115$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 52c | 114.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 44c | 105.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -10.8wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 47c | 51.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 54c | 49.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…36c5backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 53c | 36.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9585…475cbacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Over | 48c | 24.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Over | 47c | 22.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. PelicansWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.