NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x856ed2b7cb8ad8f2c9c5f6044fb1b028fb0639f1c1ae905ac44db29bdb4d531a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 6,155$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 49c | 4,850$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.5 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 52c | 2,443$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.44 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 2,125$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,227$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.04 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 747.42$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 47c | 149$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 46c | 59.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Over | 53c | 58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…fc1abacked Over | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 52c | 21.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…8905backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25fe…7283backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…f4c8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9d…c5dbbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…bbc8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…a60fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…d7ecbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…74a6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549a…704bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…0d0cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…29c7backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3ea1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…fceabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-10.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-11.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-9.5)Warriors won
- Warriors vs. PelicansWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 226.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.