Earnings · resolved market
Will MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03432900d523f067b167d7c9483cbbae68079b0244bac6676260694e580789c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,795$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 19c | 4,102$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.48 | 772 | 37.3%288 W · 484 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 12c | 1,314$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 473 | 38.5%182 W · 291 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 21c | 1,001$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.19 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 48c | 727.65$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.46per pick | 32cpaid | +681.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 63c | 376.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.83 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…2278backed No | 47c | 200.18$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 37c | 179.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed Yes | 61c | 177.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 175.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 65c | 154$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 23c | 129.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…f078backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…3d9abacked No | 35c | 129.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 20c | 115.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed No | 21c | 113.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbf…79f6backed No | 55c | 109.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 684 | 43%294 W · 390 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf57…053bbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcd…42e1backed Yes | 79c | 99.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e58…aebebacked Yes | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf37…2454backed No | 27c | 74.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 23c | 70.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…15d7backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…61b9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…2a7dbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681f…ca51backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 33c | 36.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…d46dbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…3fffbacked Yes | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…df93backed Yes | 75c | 29.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905a…75dabacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 72cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4945…476bbacked Yes | 78c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6605backed Yes | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…c361backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.