NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87d395015e076fb55094aab7490f94077f2ede6f4f0fe898b0eccf8f51da336a

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Dec 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,494
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $49,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,494 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc94a…9401backed Under	47c	5,779$2,716 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,063.07	403	50.1%202 W · 201 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Over	56c	5,357$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	259	45.6%118 W · 141 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8737…94fdbacked Under	46c	4,130$1,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,230.43	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.5wins	+0.35per pick	50cpaid	+70.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x85df…9124backed Over	3c	3,100$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	7cpaid	+190.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Over	55c	2,727$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	152	44.1%67 W · 85 L	-14.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Over	3c	2,200$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	45c	1,666$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$922.95	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over	54c	1,389$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	653	39.5%258 W · 395 L	-24.6wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93a7…8db6backed Over	3c	1,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	44	13.6%6 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1db…ceb7backed Over	55c	945.45$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Over	55c	909.09$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	274	43.1%118 W · 156 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Under	6c	542.97$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.67	679	21.4%145 W · 534 L	+32.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Over	70c	499.99$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.99	126	55.6%70 W · 56 L	-8.1wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-12%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Under	44c	497.9$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.82	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	44c	400$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$224	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Over	57c	350.88$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	40.3%73 W · 108 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Over	47c	279.99$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.9	41	39%16 W · 25 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	45c	250$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Under	44c	227.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.27	293	46.4%136 W · 157 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe733…0accbacked Under	46c	199.99$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.99	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	49cpaid	+54%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed Under	43c	184$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.88	85	52.9%45 W · 40 L	+3.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90da…049cbacked Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.60per pick	60cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over	54c	177$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.58	44	47.7%21 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20c2…895fbacked Over	58c	172.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-3.5wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked Over	56c	150$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	314	30.3%95 W · 219 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1594backed Under	46c	132$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.28	60	45%27 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x476b…51c9backed Over	54c	127.8$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.01	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-3.0wins	-0.33per pick	55cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x363a…b79ebacked Under	46c	126$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.04	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-8.6wins	-0.19per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under	46c	115$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.1	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under	43c	114$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.98	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59eb…fa33backed Over	54c	101.27$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.15	99	41.4%41 W · 58 L	-7.4wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Over	64c	100.17$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.14	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ff…121cbacked Over	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked Over	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Under	30c	100$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.25	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Over	53c	99.99$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	427	44.5%190 W · 237 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Under	47c	95.72$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.73	1,294	48.1%623 W · 671 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked Under	46c	95$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.3	63	49.2%31 W · 32 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under	47c	87.12$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.46	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Over	71c	75$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.25	166	69.9%116 W · 50 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	68cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcba…d962backed Over	55c	72.82$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	-7.9wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9784…e452backed Over	49c	70$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed Under	46c	68$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.72	68	55.9%38 W · 30 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	32c	63.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.35	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Over	54c	63$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	41	65.9%27 W · 14 L	+5.2wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9a7…261bbacked Over	54c	56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.24	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Under	46c	56$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.24	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cdb…7a7abacked Under	46c	55$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.7	58	44.8%26 W · 32 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Under	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Over	57c	48$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca15…0d5ebacked Under	40c	47.5$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa5f…3de3backed Under	46c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	72	47.2%34 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Over	54c	42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.68	42	42.9%18 W · 24 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe166…edcebacked Over	56c	41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	55cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9874…15d7backed Over	57c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	25	36%9 W · 16 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfaac…1045backed Over	57c	40$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b80…8e56backed Over	54c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	28	50%14 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e02…c5f2backed Over	54c	39$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	52cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed Over	54c	34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.36	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.9wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x581b…0290backed Under	46c	33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	64	46.9%30 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	55c	31.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	415	56.9%236 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc17…53b6backed Over	54c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	24	62.5%15 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed Over	57c	29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.53	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1315…d32ebacked Over	57c	28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	56cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…1dccbacked Under	47c	27.79$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.73	270	34.8%94 W · 176 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…1cddbacked Under	46c	27.49$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.84	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-10%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	47c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.31	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd568…655ebacked Over	54c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x859a…1ccebacked Over	57c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	+6.0wins	+0.21per pick	52cpaid	+43.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0dcf…4028backed Over	57c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-4.9wins	-0.19per pick	54cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Over	54c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Over	54c	26$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	40	60%24 W · 16 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over	54c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	36	50%18 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7483…96a6backed Over	54c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34b2…cec2backed Over	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81ea…21e1backed Over	54c	20.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	119	30.3%36 W · 83 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Over	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc74c…2413backed Over	54c	19.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd09…3264backed Over	54c	18.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	20	30%6 W · 14 L	-4.6wins	-0.23per pick	53cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x83d7…f2d1backed Over	57c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5this page
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bulls won
Cavaliers vs. BullsBulls won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bulls won
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bulls won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event