NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917eae8b3e7140a2613f1efa38a0722b9f118f0ab9de15fab4137a04dbca0f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bulls | 46c | 318.31$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Cavaliers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 271 | 61.3%166 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 427 | 44.5%190 W · 237 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bulls | 50c | 88.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Bulls | 47c | 77.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bulls | 51c | 63.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Cavaliers | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…d867backed Cavaliers | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Bulls | 51c | 54.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 304 | 54.9%167 W · 137 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Cavaliers | 53c | 53.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. BullsBulls won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 116.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.