NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21297ee1a9cd833dd357343cd2909d57c5978d5d67b51d6d72ec46a443f24c7

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $34,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,363 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Over	48c	19,400$9,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,239.39	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Under	52c	18,383$9,559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,823.76	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	48cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed Over	48c	4,416$2,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,119.75	112	42.9%48 W · 64 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	51c	2,253$1,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,103.97	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacce…72e8backed Under	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.79	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	49c	1,878$920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$920.22	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd47b…35d7backed Over	70c	787$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-2.1wins	-0.30per pick	73cpaid	-43%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Over	6c	782$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.92	390	18.2%71 W · 319 L	+27.6wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+62.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	48c	768.87$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.62	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc35a…e5d8backed Under	53c	718.96$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$338.96	64	40.6%26 W · 38 L	-9.1wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under	30c	697$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.9	379	30.6%116 W · 263 L	+5.0wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958f…7d5abacked Under	54c	663.54$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.23	134	64.2%86 W · 48 L	+5.9wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Under	54c	400$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184	135	43.7%59 W · 76 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3da…db64backed Under	53c	377.36$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.36	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-3.6wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Under	53c	300$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141	736	49.9%367 W · 369 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	47c	209.58$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.5	1,212	48.3%586 W · 626 L	-20.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	701	53.5%375 W · 326 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	958	48.7%467 W · 491 L	+24.5wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x127a…ca3cbacked Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over	47c	167.45$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.7	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Under	52c	152.76$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.76	249	55%137 W · 112 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…9b10backed Under	53c	112.52$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.52	79	53.2%42 W · 37 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over	48c	105$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd333…2a71backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Over	46c	101.85$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.85	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	549	51.9%285 W · 264 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5fb3…88c1backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	612	53.1%325 W · 287 L	-20.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5a3…8248backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	48c	97$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.56	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	157	59.9%94 W · 63 L	+9.5wins	+0.06per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	31c	84.73$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.47	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Under	53c	68.11$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.01	39	69.2%27 W · 12 L	+5.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Over	47c	62.26$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.26	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Under	52c	51.81$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.02	964	47.8%461 W · 503 L	+35.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec54…a03dbacked Under	53c	50$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.5	109	57.8%63 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Over	35c	50$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	634	27.3%173 W · 461 L	-19.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5962backed Under	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7972…930fbacked Under	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	82	47.6%39 W · 43 L	-12.3wins	-0.15per pick	63cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Under	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	121	57%69 W · 52 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd1…8f31backed Under	55c	36.36$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.36	252	47.2%119 W · 133 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf782…8abbbacked Under	53c	33.96$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.96	27	70.4%19 W · 8 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4f8…47aabacked Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	56	55.4%31 W · 25 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x230a…59b1backed Under	53c	20.19$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.49	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…d240backed Under	53c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.93	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf597…f4aebacked Under	53c	18.9$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event