NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabb7006f0e8d009cb1cc81e502db13ecdf368041c2006ee0baacb92c2cb53cd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b2…006ebacked Under | 45c | 23,796$10,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,708.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…6487backed Over | 55c | 23,791$13,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,705.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…c056backed Over | 55c | 23,462$12,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,557.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…a9cfbacked Under | 45c | 23,455$10,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,554.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 47c | 1,485$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.95 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 652.84$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.83 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 56c | 315$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 282$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 217.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ad65backed Under | 48c | 202$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…7046backed Over | 53c | 202$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.94 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…2399backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee1…a27cbacked Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…37b4backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Under | 48c | 166.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 12c | 150$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…7c99backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Over | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 133 | 18.8%25 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 26c | 81.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…ada3backed Under | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 53c | 46.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 43.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 45c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f969backed Under | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7991…ef53backed Over | 76c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 129.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.