NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d13a56d6c548dfc0258224beed6b389a2770b8058b7ced97bfc223431b3249e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 17,232$8,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,680.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 50c | 7,333$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.5 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…c94dbacked Under | 52c | 6,111$3,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,172.11 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 50c | 5,004$2,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,494.74 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 1,648$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.51 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,212$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 49c | 809.99$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.89 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 49c | 708.04$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.16 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 51c | 700$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 51c | 444$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.44 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Under | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 49c | 391.96$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.06 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 339.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd30…4163backed Under | 50c | 200.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 51c | 196.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.37 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 48c | 178.43$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Over | 51c | 145.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 51c | 118.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Over | 51c | 104.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…b8ffbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Over | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Over | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 49c | 82.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7897…0842backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Under | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.8wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 48c | 47.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…da96backed Over | 51c | 46.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…9347backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Over | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…f9a1backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 350 | 52%182 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 38.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Over | 51c | 37.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 291 | 56.4%164 W · 127 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Over | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 51c | 31.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…8593backed Over | 51c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9a…f491backed Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…786cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 249.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 129.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 248.5Over won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5Under won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)Heat won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.