NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f03852c2d93b3bcd8f73357459f5c6224132fba5358e2248a429d958530101f

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Bulls, Heat
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8198…e96ebacked Bulls	54c	2,200$1,188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,188	164	46.3%76 W · 88 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Heat	47c	1,700$799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$901	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	53c	1,459$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.77	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	46c	1,314$604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.76	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	47c	500$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	46c	343$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.22	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat	47c	266.87$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.44	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Bulls	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed Bulls	54c	200$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Bulls	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e88…7c99backed Bulls	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	55	52.7%29 W · 26 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Heat	46c	63$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.02	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb65e…f150backed Bulls	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked Bulls	54c	29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	46c	28$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.12	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event