NBA · resolved market

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9ed6973c80f1ea37dea1381b95ef4877f77b0b82faa7ecc20aa73069de0722d

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Bulls, Heat
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $457,508
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $463,205

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,508 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Bulls	50c	371,160$186,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186,700.68	252	48.4%122 W · 130 L	-5.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Heat	50c	235,235$117,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117,816.59	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Heat	49c	70,000$34,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,700	726	48.3%351 W · 375 L	+30.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+11%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Heat	51c	22,222$11,403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,819.03	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Heat	50c	20,000$10,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,000	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	54c	19,588$10,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,975.81	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Heat	50c	17,500$8,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,830	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls	51c	11,535$5,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,848.29	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Bulls	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,900	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Heat	49c	10,000$4,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,100	346	45.4%157 W · 189 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Heat	49c	6,530$3,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,330.3	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Heat	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Heat	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	1,269	44.5%565 W · 704 L	+32.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat	51c	4,000$2,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,959.99	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Heat	52c	2,889$1,497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,391.9	155	49.7%77 W · 78 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea5…1f23backed Bulls	50c	2,850$1,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,425	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52bb…ebe9backed Heat	50c	2,448$1,224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,224.22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat	50c	2,149$1,071 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,077.85	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Bulls	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Heat	50c	1,500$744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$756.01	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bulls	47c	1,498$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.54	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	49c	1,324$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$669.12	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3f…5269backed Bulls	50c	1,300$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Heat	50c	1,280$640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$640	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bulls	50c	1,265$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$632.5	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls	49c	1,212$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.87	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0baa…6933backed Bulls	50c	1,150$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Heat	51c	733.69$376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357.69	136	44.9%61 W · 75 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat	49c	700$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$357	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b1…a7b6backed Bulls	50c	650$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58df…c720backed Heat	51c	648.25$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.64	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.22per pick	47cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Bulls	49c	612.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Heat	52c	598.9$311 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$287.47	102	51%52 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Heat	48c	500$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$260	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d3b…b511backed Bulls	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Bulls	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1377…56aebacked Heat	50c	300$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	74	47.3%35 W · 39 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Heat	52c	300$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144	80	43.8%35 W · 45 L	-7.1wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Heat	49c	300$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Bulls	51c	211.76$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Heat	49c	200.65$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.33	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Bulls	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…5a6ebacked Heat	50c	199.41$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.41	120	48.3%58 W · 62 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Heat	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	35	62.9%22 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f1…025dbacked Bulls	51c	154$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.54	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Bulls	51c	134.22$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.3	1,695	44.7%758 W · 937 L	-30.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed Bulls	50c	120$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Heat	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	378	50.3%190 W · 188 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf256…a93fbacked Bulls	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	132	53%70 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…a062backed Bulls	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Bulls	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Heat	48c	97$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.96	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Heat	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat	49c	92$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.92	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed Bulls	49c	81.63$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	224	67.9%152 W · 72 L	+13.8wins	+0.06per pick	62cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Heat	56c	73.53$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.71	327	43.4%142 W · 185 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x694f…68efbacked Heat	51c	58$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.4	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-14%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Bulls	50c	56$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	905	60.8%550 W · 355 L	-2.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Bulls	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	327	50.2%164 W · 163 L	-10.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Heat	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	801	46.4%372 W · 429 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0c…6825backed Bulls	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	58.3%35 W · 25 L	+5.3wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Bulls	50c	35.66$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	119	46.2%55 W · 64 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacff…3872backed Bulls	50c	33.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	60	56.7%34 W · 26 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc582…a75fbacked Bulls	51c	29.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-5.0wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3646…4d91backed Bulls	51c	25.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d23…b5a2backed Heat	51c	24.71$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.11	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-3.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Heat	49c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.24	876	47.5%416 W · 460 L	+3.7wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a51…ef48backed Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	66	42.4%28 W · 38 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0fbd…6ffebacked Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	90	42.2%38 W · 52 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Bulls	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Bulls (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event